Morocco battles Portugal for a spot in the 2022 FIFA World Cup semifinals on Saturday.
Morocco enjoys an incredible campaign in this tournament, having reached the last eight for the first time after a stunning penalty shootout upset of Spain. Morocco topped a tough Group F ahead of Croatia and Belgium.
Now they face a massive test to reach the semifinals, as Portugal turned in an impressive display against Switzerland on Tuesday.
After head coach Fernando Santos decided to drop Cristiano Ronaldo following his antics against South Korea, his replacement Gonçalo Ramos destroyed Switzerland with a hat-trick in a 6-1 beatdown.
The player to watch in this game is Ramos, who has nine goals and one assist in 11 Primeira Liga games with Benfica this season. AccuScore gives Ramos a 37.1 percent chance to score against Morocco. He has 17 SCA and 2 GCA in 11 Primeira Liga games with Benfica this season.
FBRef defines SCA as “the two offensive actions leading directly to a shot, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls.” GCA is “the two offensive actions leading directly to a goal, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls.” Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
DafaNews Picks
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Morocco 5.80
• Portugal 1.71
• Draw 3.65
Spread
• Morocco -0.5, -1 (1.91)
• Portugal +0.5, +1 (2.01)
Total
• Over 2, 2.5 (1.95)
• Under 2, 2.5 (1.95)
Key Points to Consider
Head-to-Head: These two teams last met in FIFA World Cup action on June 20, 2018 and Portugal won 1-0.
Projected Leaders
For Morocco, Sofiane Boufal has a 15.7 percent chance to score. He averages 1.02 shots overall per sim, 0.64 shots on goal per and 0.17 goals per sim.
For Portugal, Gonçalo Ramos has a 37.1 percent chance to net the ball. He averages 1.86 shots overall per sim, 0.73 shots on goal per and 0.86 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Morocco has had an incredible showing so far and it will live long in the memory. Portugal looked outstanding against the Switzerland after an inconsistent World Cup so far, with Cristiano Ronaldo’s absence for most of the game actually helping them. Portugal will see some regression, this will be a low-scoring game.
Under 2, 2.5 (1.95)
Two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick on the total in this one. Average score in simulations is Portugal 1.37 to Morocco 0.8.
