We’ve got some intriguing value this weekend at Turf Moor as Burnley and Everton go head-to-head. Both sides are looking to get back on the win column.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Dafabet Odds
Team to Win (Regular Time)
•Burnley FC: 2.89
•Draw: 3.29
•Everton FC: 2.63
Spread
•Burnley FC 0, -0.5: 2.47
•Everton FC 0, +0.5: 1.61
Total
•Over 2.5: 2.23
•Under 2.5: 1.71
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 30 percent chance of a draw. That happens in 27.5 percent of simulations, suggesting no added value on the pick. Still something to note, though, as close to a third of sims are projecting to finish in a draw.
The projected score is 1.46 – 1.28, in favor of Burnley.
Last 6: Burnley is coming off a 2-2 draw on the road vs Aston Villa. They have 3 draws, 1 win and 2 losses in their last six overall. Everton, coming off a 3-1 home loss vs Manchester City, have 3 losses and 3 wins in their last six overall.
Interceptions: Everton is No. 18 of 20 in the league in terms of interceptions on defense. Not a very aggressive defensive unit.
Clean Sheets: Both sides head into this weekend’s matchup with 2 clean sheets this season.
Head to Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action on May 3, 2019 when Everton won, 2-0.
Projected Leaders
Richarlison has a 28-to-29 percent chance to score for Everton. He averages 2.49 shots overall per sim, 0.75 shots on goal per and 0.34 goals per sim.
Ashley Barnes has a 40 percent chance to score for Burnley. He averages 2.06 shots overall per sim, 0.94 shots on goal per and 0.51 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Burnley to win
Odds indicate Burnley have a 34.6 percent chance to win. They win 40 percent of simulations. Some added side value on the pick there. Burnley on the money line is a four-star (out of four) hot trend pick.
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