We’ve got some intriguing value this weekend at Turf Moor as Burnley and Everton go head-to-head. Both sides are looking to get back on the win column.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
•Burnley FC: 2.89
•Everton FC: 2.63
•Burnley FC 0, -0.5: 2.47
•Everton FC 0, +0.5: 1.61
•Over 2.5: 2.23
•Under 2.5: 1.71
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 30 percent chance of a draw. That happens in 27.5 percent of simulations, suggesting no added value on the pick. Still something to note, though, as close to a third of sims are projecting to finish in a draw.
The projected score is 1.46 – 1.28, in favor of Burnley.
Last 6: Burnley is coming off a 2-2 draw on the road vs Aston Villa. They have 3 draws, 1 win and 2 losses in their last six overall. Everton, coming off a 3-1 home loss vs Manchester City, have 3 losses and 3 wins in their last six overall.
Interceptions: Everton is No. 18 of 20 in the league in terms of interceptions on defense. Not a very aggressive defensive unit.
Clean Sheets: Both sides head into this weekend’s matchup with 2 clean sheets this season.
Head to Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action on May 3, 2019 when Everton won, 2-0.
Richarlison has a 28-to-29 percent chance to score for Everton. He averages 2.49 shots overall per sim, 0.75 shots on goal per and 0.34 goals per sim.
Ashley Barnes has a 40 percent chance to score for Burnley. He averages 2.06 shots overall per sim, 0.94 shots on goal per and 0.51 goals per sim.
Burnley to win
Odds indicate Burnley have a 34.6 percent chance to win. They win 40 percent of simulations. Some added side value on the pick there. Burnley on the money line is a four-star (out of four) hot trend pick.
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