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    EPL Game Preview: Burnley vs Aston Villa

    ston-Villa-vs-Burnley-EN-min

    Football   |   September 27, 2019

    Following a mid-week road win in the Carabao Cup, Aston Villa gets set to host Burnley this Saturday at Villa Park.

    Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

    Dafabet Odds

    Team to Win (Regular Time)

    •Aston Villa: 2.41
    •Draw: 3.45
    •Burnley FC: 3.08

    Spread
    •Aston Villa -0.5: 2.38
    •Burnley FC +0.5: 1.65

    Total
    •Over 2.5: 1.96
    •Under 2.5: 1.94

    What to Watch For

    Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 29 percent chance this match ends in a draw. That happens in under 28 percent of simulations, suggesting no added side value on the pick. Definitely worth looking at, though, since close to a third of sims are still ending in a draw.

    The projected score is 1.49 – 1.46, in favor of Burnley.

    Last Week: Last time out, Villa came up short, 3-2, on the road vs Arsenal. They finished in a scoreless draw the matchup prior vs West Ham. Burnley will look to build off last week’s 2-0 home win vs Norwich.

    Clean Sheets: Both sides have 2 clean sheets to their name so far this season.

    Clearances/Saves: Villa are No. 4 in the league so far with 144 clearances. Burnley are No. 4 in the league with 23 saves.

    Head to Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action back in 2015 when Burnley won, 1-0.

    Projected Leaders

    Ashley Barnes has a 43 percent chance to score for Burnley. He averages 2.32 shots overall per sim, 1.01 shots on goal per, and 0.56 goals per sim.

    John McGinn has a 29 percent chance to score for the home side, Aston Villa. He averages 3.35 shots overall per sim, 1.34 shots on goal per and 0.35 goals per sim.

    Analyst’s Pick

    Burnley +0.5

    Simulation data has more faith on the road team here than do odds-makers. Burnley wins more simulated matches than do Aston Villa, so we’ll gladly take the +0.5 here on the spread. The side value on Burnley is a four-star (out of four) hot trend pick.

    Make sure to check all other MLB, NFL, NCAA, NHL, NBA and soccer game predictions from AccuScore.

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