This weekend’s Premier League action kicks off Friday night at Villa Park as Everton visit Aston Villa following a 1-0 home win last week vs Watford. Villa continue to look for their first win of the season following back-to-back losses vs Tottenham and Bournemouth, respectively.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Dafabet Odds
Team to Win (Regular Time)
Aston Villa: 3.28
Draw: 3.68
Everton FC: 2.21
Spread
Aston Villa +0.5: 1.74
Everton -0.5: 2.23
Total
Over 2.5: 1.76
Under 2.5: 2.16
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a about a 27 percent chance this weekend’s match ends in a draw. That happens in under 25 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added value on the pick.
The projected score is 1.96 – 1.07, in favor of Everton.
Last 6: Going back to summer action, Villa have 4 losses and 2 wins in their last six overall. They have opened this Premier League season with a 3-1 road loss vs Tottenham, and a 2-1 home loss vs Bournemouth. Everton have 3 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 overall. They opened the season on the road with a scoreless fraw vs Crystal Palae, followed by a 1-0 home win vs Watford last week.
More Talent: Simply put, Everton has more talent on both sides of the ball. Even if they struggle at times on offense, they should be able to get the win with a solid defensive unit. They finished last season with 8 clean slates in their final 11 games.
Head to Head: These two sides last met in Premier League action back in March of 2016. Everton won 3-1. The last time Aston Villa defeated Everton in Premier League was back in May of 2015.
Projected Leaders
Richarlison has a 40-to-41 percent chance to score this Friday. He averages 3.15 shots overall, 0.86 shots on goal per and 0.52 goals per sim.
John McGinn has a 20.5 percent chance to net the ball for Vila. He averages 2.27 shots overall per sim, 0.78 shots on goal per and 0.23 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Everton -0.5
Odds indicate there’s a 45 chance Everton wins this match. Sim data has that probably up to 56 percent. Everton winning outright is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. The added side value makes it a four-star pick.
