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    EPL: AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

    Aston-Villa-vs-Bournemouth

    Football   |   August 16, 2019

    Aston Villa gets set to host AFC Bournemouth this Saturday at Villa Park as the second week of Premier League action kicks off. We’ve got some appealing side value in this match.

    Dafabet Odds

    Team to Win (Regular Time)

    AFC Bournemouth: 3.06
    Draw: 3.53
    Aston Villa: 2.38

    Spread
    AFC Bournemouth +0.5: 1.65
    Aston Villa -0.5: 2.38

    Total
    Over 2.5: 1.82
    Under 2.5: 2.08

    What to Watch For

    Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a about an 28 percent chance this weekend’s match ends in a draw. That happens in 25 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added value on the pick.

    The projected score is 1.56 – 1.38, in favor of AFC Bournemouth.

    Playing with Momentum: Week 1: Aston Villa had a strong start last weekend, going up early vs Tottenham on the road. Harry Kane’s magic in the final minutes turned that around, however – leading to a 3-1 loss for Villa. Still, lots of momentum heading into this matchup. Bournemouth finished in a 1-1 draw at home vs Sheffield United last week.

    Head to Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action in 2016 when Bournemouth won, 2-1.

    Betting on the Total: In all head-to-head matches between these two sides, the average combined score has been 2.33 goals. Slight lean on the UNDER on this one.

    Projected Leaders

    Callum Wilson has a 41 percent chance to net the ball for Bournemouth. He averages 1.99 shots overall per sim, 0.89 shots on goal per and 0.52 goals per sim.

    For Aston Villa, we’ll have our eyes on John McGinn who has a 26 percent chance to score. He averages 2.12 shots overall per sim, 0.73 shots on goal per and 0.30 goals per sim.

    Analyst’s Pick

    AFC Bournemouth to win.

    Odds indicate there’s a 32-to-33 percent chance Bournemouth win this match. They win over 41 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting quite a bit of side value on the pick. Whereas offshore odds have Villa as the slight favorite, AccuScore sims is on the other side of that money line. Safe pick would be Bournemouth +0.5

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