Chelsea host Burnley this Saturday at Stamford Bridge.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Dafabet Odds
Team to Win (Regular Time)
•Chelsea FC: 1.31
•Draw: 5.78
•Burnley FC: 10.69
Spread
•Chelsea FC -1.5: 1.90
•Burnley FC +1.5: 2.03
Total
•Over 3: 2.13
•Under 3: 1.78
Key Points to Consider
Last 6: Chelsea, coming off a 2-0 home win vs N Forest in the FA Cup, have 3 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw in their last six overall. Burnley have 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 overall.
Some Numbers: Burnley are currently No. 13 in the league, which is somewhat surprising when you consider they have just 63 total shots on target all season — No. 20 in the league.
Save Percentage: This match could yield plenty of goals if Burnley stay aggressive. Chelsea has a 54.7 save percentage, good for No. 20 in the league, meaning scoring chances will be there if the attack is.
Head-to-Head: These two sides last matched up on Oct. 26, 2019 when Chelsea won, 4-2.
Projected Leaders
For Burnley, Chris Wood has a 24-to-25 percent chance to score. He averages 1.1 shots overall per sim, 0.5 shots on goal per and 0.27 goals per sim.
For Chelsea, Tammy Abraham has a 58+ percent chance to score. He averages 3.21 shots overall per sim, 1.56 shots on goal per and 0.9 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Chelsea to win.
Not much side value here on anything else. Burnley is projected to be slightly more competitive than odds are indicating, but not by enough to warrant a pick on the underdogs.
