The Serie A continues this week! The games will be played behind closed doors because of the COVID-19 pandemic and we will have a very exciting contest on Sunday when AC Milan hosts Fiorentina. AC Milan is coming off a 3-1 road win against Napoli on Sunday while Fiorentina lost 1-0 at home against Benevento last Sunday. AC Milan leads the Serie A with 20 points in eight games while Fiorentina is 15th in the standings with eight points in eight games. Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Dafabet Picks
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• AC Milan: 1.82
• Fiorentina: 4.40
• Draw: 3.95
Spread
• AC Milan: -0.5, -1 (2.03)
• Fiorentina: +0.5, +1 (1.90)
Total
• Over 2.5, 3 (1.84)
• Under 2,5, 3 (2.06)
Key Points to Consider
Last 6:
AC Milan, coming off a 3-1 road win vs Napoli on Sunday, have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 games overall. Fiorentina, coming off a 0-1 home loss vs Benevento on Sunday, have 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 6 games overall.
Momentum: AC Milan has been on an upward trend — winning 3 of their last 5 games overall.
Head-to-Head: These two sides last matched up in Serie A action on Feb. 22, 2020 and the game ended in a 1-1 draw.
Projected Leaders
For AC Milan, Rafael Leão has a 25.98 percent chance to score. He averages 1.33 shots overall per sim, 0.55 shots on goal per and 0.3 goals per sim.
For Fiorentina, Gaetano Castrovilli has a 18.32 percent chance to net the ball. He averages 0.99 shots overall per sim, 0.37 shots on goal per and 0.2 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
AC Milan -0.5, -1.
Four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick on AC Milan in this one. Average score in simulations is AC Milan 2.59 to Fiorentina 0.7.
