Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics NBA Playoffs Game 6 Preview

 

The Boston Celtics look to secure a spot in the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010 when they host the Miami Heat in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Friday. The Celtics took a 3-2 lead after beating the Heat 93-80 on the road in Game 5.

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics

Friday, May 27, 2022 – 08:30 PM EDT at TD Garden

Will Tyler Herro Play in Game 6?

ESPN reported that Tyler Herro’s groin injury typically would take two to four weeks to return. Herro said he is pushing to return in this series but there’s no confirmation from the Heat.

This is an ominous update, as Herro is one of Miami’s most important players, especially on the offensive end. The Heat scored just 80 points in Game 5 with Herro out of the lineup. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year played a major role for the Heat in the regular season but his scoring numbers dropped in the playoffs.

Tyler Herro averaged 20.7 points during the regular season while shooting 44.7 percent from the field and 39.9 percent from 3-point range but he put up just 13.5 points per game in the playoffs, shooting 41.3 percent from the field and 23.2 percent from 3-point range.

While Herro hasn’t played as well in the playoffs, the Heat still could use his ability to make shots. Kyle Lowry and Max Strus went a combined 0-for-15 in Game 5. According to Elias Sports, that’s the worst 0-fer for a starting backcourt in a playoff game since starters were officially tracked in 1970-71.

Game 5 Recap

The Heat shot just 31.9 percent from the field (30-for-94) and 15.6 percent from 3-point range (7-for-45). You just can’t win NBA games shooting like that. The Celtics trailied by five points at the half but they outscored the Heat 32-16 in third quarter to break the game open. The Heat was just 4-for-23 (17.3 percent) from the field in the third quarter and the Celtics took the fight to them.

The Celtics are now 26-4 when Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Marcus Smart and Al Horford all play in the same game since January 8. Miami’s greatest challenge in this series is how long will their lockdown defense hold up? Boston has shot makers and great offense always beats great defense if great defense can’t score.

I don’t think the Heat can score enough in Game 6. I think they can get the stops I just don’t think they can score in timely moments.

As explained many times throughout this series, when two great defenses meet, the game comes down to a bucket. The Heat look exhausted, they go on scoring droughts in key moments while the Celtics have too many weapons.

DafaNews Picks

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Miami Heat: 4.26
• Boston Celtics: 1.26

Spread
• Miami Heat: +8.5 (1.89)
• Boston Celtics: -8.5 (1.92)

Total
• Over 201.5 (1.93)
• Under 201.5 (1.88)

Betting Trends

The Heat are:

• 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home
• 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600
• 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games
• 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog

The Over is:

• 4-0 in Heat last four games following a double-digit loss at home
• 9-3 in Heat last 12 games against a team with a winning straight up record
• 10-4 in Celtics last 14 games against a team with a winning straight up record
• 12-5-1 in Celtics last 18 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points
• 17-8-1 in Celtics last 26 games following an ATS win
• 19-9-1 in Celtics last 29 games following a straight up win
• 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Boston
• 10-4 in the last 14 meetings

Projected Leaders

For the Heat, Jimmy Butler is projected to finish with 23.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists, making 6.8 field goals in 16.7 attempts.

For the Celtics, Jayson Tatum is expected to score 24.7 points with 7.7 rebounds and 5.6 assists, making 7.9 field goals in 18.6 attempts.

Analyst’s Pick

Heat +8.5 (1.89) and Over 201.5 (1.93)

Three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend picks on the Celtics and the total in this one. Average score in simulations is Boston Celtics 106.9 to Miami Heat 102.6.

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