The Miami Heat visit the Boston Celtics in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Saturday. The Celtics try to even the series after suffering a 109-103 loss in Game 3.
Will Jimmy Butler Play in Game 4?
As predicted in our Game 3 preview, either Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Max Strus or Duncan Robinson had to really step to give the Heat a chance and Adebayo played incredibly well, scoring 31 points with 10 rebounds, six assists and four steals. If Adebayo can replicate this effort then the Heat will go back to Miami with a 3-1 lead, especially if Jimmy Butler is out
Butler left the Heat’s 109-103 Game 3 win with knee inflammation. He had eight points in 20 minutes in the first half but did not come out of the locker room after halftime.
After the game, Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said that Butler would not need to undergo an MRI and according to USA Today, he is not expected to miss any further time in this series.
This is Miami’s greatest challenge in this series. How long will their lockdown defense hold up? Boston has shot makers and great offense always beats great defense if great defense can’t score.
X-Factors for Both Teams
Jaylen Brown was nasty for the Celtics once again, scoring a game-high 40 points. As an elite shot maker, Brown is one of the keys in Game 4 but the Celtics won’t go anywhere if Jayson Tatum doesn’t contribute significantly. Tatum had just 10 points of 3 of 14 shooting and 1 of 7 from 3-point range. He has to impose his will early and go shot for shot with Jimmy Butler.
The X-Factor can be Robert Williams, who is day-to-day after missing Game 3 due to left knee soreness. Williams missed nearly four weeks due to a torn meniscus in his left knee and he suffered a bone bruise on his left knee in Game 3 of the second round series against the Bucks in a collision with Giannis Antetokounmpo. That injury has forced him to miss five of his last seven games. Celtics head coach Ime Udoka believes Williams could play in Game 4.
If Williams plays, he can be a difference-maker containing Adebayo but the Celtics really need to take better care of the ball, as their 23 turnovers in Game 3 led to 29 points for the Heat. You can’t win that way!
DafaNews Picks
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Miami Heat: 3.35
• Boston Celtics: 1.36
Spread
• Miami Heat: +6.5 (1.93)
• Boston Celtics: -6.5 (1.88)
Total
• Over 208.5 (1.90)
• Under 208.5 (1.91)
Betting Trends
The Heat are:
• 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600
• 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall
• 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game
• 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Boston
The Celtics are:
• 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Conference Finals games
Projected Leaders
For the Heat, Jimmy Butler is projected to finish with 24.4 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.3 assists, making 7.5 field goals in 18.0 attempts.
For the Celtics, Jayson Tatum is expected to score 27.7 points with 8.6 rebounds and 5.4 assists, making 8.4 field goals in 19.4 attempts.
Analyst’s Pick
Heat +6.5 (1.93)
Three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick on the Heat in this one. Average score in simulations is Boston Celtics 106.6 to Miami Heat 105.1.
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