The Boston Celtics look to get back on track and defend their home court when they host the Golden State Warriors in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday. Just like in Game 1, the Warriors took command with a big third quarter but unlike Thursday, they finished the job and won 107-88.
Golden State Warriors
*Notates expected starter
C: Kevon Looney*, Jonathan Kuminga
PF: Draymond Green*, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Andre Iguodala
SF: Andrew Wiggins*, Otto Porter Jr., Nemanja Bjelica
SG: Klay Thompson*, Jordan Poole, Damion Lee
PG: Stephen Curry*, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody
Boston Celtics
*Notates expected starter
C: Robert Williams III*, Daniel Theis
PF: Al Horford*, Grant Williams, Luke Kornet
SF: Jayson Tatum*, Aaron Nesmith, Sam Hauser
SG: Jaylen Brown*, Payton Pritchard, Nik Stauskas
PG: Marcus Smart*, Derrick White
DafaNews Picks
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Golden State Warriors 2.27
• Boston Celtics 1.70
Spread
• Golden State Warriors +3.5 (1.88)
• Boston Celtics -3.5 (1.93)
Total
• Over 212.5 (1.90)
• Under 212.5 (1.90)
Betting Trends
The Warriors are:
• 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points
• 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall
• 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning percentage above .600
• 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning straight up record
• 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog
The Under is:
• 11-2 in Golden State’s last 13 games against a team with a winning straight up record
• 10-3 in Boston’s last 13 games against a team with a winning straight up record
• 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Boston
• 20-8 in the last 28 meetings
Projected Leaders
For the Warriors, Stephen Curry is projected to finish with 26.2 points, 8.2 assists and 4.7 rebounds, making 8.2 field goals in 19.9 attempts.
For the Celtics, Jayson Tatum is expected to score 25.6 points with 7.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists, making 7.9 field goals in 18.6 attempts.
Keys to Game 3
Al Horford was the difference-maker in Game 1 with 26 points, six rebounds and three assists on 9 of 12 shooting and 6 of 8 from 3-point range but he disappeared in Game 2, scoring just two points on 1 of 4 shooting and he didn’t even attempt a 3-point shot. While we can’t expect Horford to go off for over 20 points on a nightly basis or hit 3-pointers like he’s Stephen Curry, the Celtics need way more from him.
Horford isn’t the only one that has to show up and deliver a big effort. In Game 1, Horford, Marcus Smart and Derrick White combined for 65 points but they had just 16 points in Game 2 (12 of those from White).
The Celtics know what they will get from Tatum and Brown but the Warriors have weapons on weapons, they won’t win Game 3 unless other players step up offensively (Horford and Smart in particular). Horford’s matchup with Green is the key to Game 3, offensively, he’s more skilled and diverse than Green and he matches his intensity and grit. This will be crucial on Wednesday.
Celtics are the more complete team but as mentioned above, the Warriors have too many weapons and when Stephen Curry and Jordan Poole make ridiculous shots, with range, they can demoralize the Celtics defense at the right time. Nobody is scarier with a lead than Curry.
Analyst’s Picks
Warriors +3.5 (1.88) and Under 212.5 (1.90)
Two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend picks on the Warriors and the total in this one. Average score in simulations is Golden State Warriors 104.1 to Boston Celtics 103.1.
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