The Golden State Warriors clash with the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday.
The Warriors reached the NBA Finals after their 120-110 home win in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals against the Mavericks on Thursday while the Celtics suffered but got the job done in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals by beating the Heat 100-96 last Sunday.
Projected Starting Lineups and Roster
Boston Celtics
*Notates expected starter
C: Robert Williams III*, Daniel Theis
PF: Al Horford*, Grant Williams, Luke Kornet
SF: Jayson Tatum*, Aaron Nesmith, Sam Hauser
SG: Jaylen Brown*, Payton Pritchard, Nik Stauskas
PG: Marcus Smart*, Derrick White
Golden State Warriors
*Notates expected starter
C: Kevon Looney*, Jonathan Kuminga
PF: Draymond Green*, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Andre Iguodala
SF: Andrew Wiggins*, Otto Porter Jr., Nemanja Bjelica
SG: Klay Thompson*, Jordan Poole, Damion Lee
PG: Stephen Curry*, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody
DafaNews Picks
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Boston Celtics 2.47
• Golden State Warriors 1.59
Spread
• Boston Celtics +3.5 (1.85)
• Golden State Warriors -3.5 (1.97)
Total
• Over 211.5 (1.88)
• Under 211.5 (1.92)
Key Points to Consider
• Last 5: The Celtics, coming off a 100-96 road win against the Heat on Sunday, have won three of their last four games.
• Last 5: The Warriors, coming off a 120-110 home win against the Mavericks last Thursday, have won four of their last five games.
• Momentum: The Warriors have been on an upward trend, winning five of their last six games SU and ATS.
• Head-to-Head: These two teams last met on December 17 and the Warriors won 111-107 on the road.
Betting Trends
The Celtics are:
• 31-16 ATS in road games this season
• 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss
• 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite
• 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against a team with a winning home record
• 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 road games
• 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game
• 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game
• 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game
• 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600
• 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami
The Over is:
• 11-4 in Boston’s last 15 games against a team with a winning straight up record
• 8-3-1 in Boston’s last 12 games as a road favorite
• 11-5 in the last 16 meetings
Projected Leaders
For the Celtics, Jayson Tatum is expected to score 27.0 points with 8.4 rebounds and 6.3 assists, making 8.5 field goals in 21.0 attempts.
For the Warriors, Stephen Curry is projected to finish with 26.9 points, 8.1 assists and 5.2 rebounds, making 8.0 field goals in 19.4 attempts.
Game 1 Analysis
In Game 7 against the Heat, the Celtics came out with a sense of urgency offensively, deciding to just defend Jimmy Butler how they defended Kevin Durant in the first round against the Nets. Can they do the same to Stephen Curry?
The Celtics will look a lot different offensive wise against the Warriors than they did in the series against the Bucks and Heat. I anticipate Boston to get more at the rim. Celtics head coach Ime Udoka created an infrastructure in Boston. The Celtics have a true team culture and he connected with his troops to bring the best out of them. The Celtics are 27-5 when Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams III, Marcus Smart and Al Horford all play in the same game since January 8 and all of them will be available for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
“I think it’s alright to be proud of ourselves today and to enjoy this. We’re not satisfied. We’ve got a long way to go. This wasn’t the goal all season. This was just a step in getting to where we want to get to,” Jayson Tatum said on Sunday after Game 7 against the Heat.
The Warriors, on the other hand, got weapons on weapons. Their motion offense becomes lethal when slashers and versatile bigs are mixed in and firing. Anyone can go off for 25 or more points every night out of Curry, Thompson, Poole and Wiggins.
The X-Factor for Game 1 will be Kevon Looney, he gives the Warriors rebounding, size, physicality, easy baskets and alters the game defensively. The other X-Factor will be Andrew Wiggins, he elevates the Warriors on both ends and is perfect in this role.
Overall, the 2022 Warriors are better than the 2015 Warriors. Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins bring a burst of athleticism, energy and scoring outside of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson but to me, the Celtics are the more complete team on both ends and they play better on the road than at home.
Analyst’s Picks
Celtics +3.5 (1.85) and Over 211.5 (1.88)
Three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend picks on the Celtics and the total in this one. Average score in simulations is Boston Celtics 108.3 to Golden State Warriors 107.3.
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